for whom the international tolls (the broad view).

as our friend writes in the hill times today, there's a clear sense in which brian topp is the clear front-runner to succeed jack layton as head of the new democratic party of canada. let's very briefly recount topp's positional advantages at this point, in schematic terms:

1) strong connections among media types, skill at earning media - we saw this in the days following jack's death, when he surfaced as a contender out of nowhere, but also in his skillful domination of several news cycles during the early part of the week;
2) strong connections among new democratic types across the country, a lot of friends in the party and in labor, a lot of folks who see their values reflected in him, a lot of favors owed him. probably the country's pre-eminent backroom ndper, almost noone in the party today could touch the guy on these, and of those few who could, one of them, broadbent, is behind him;
3) a seamless campaign launch and intelligent campaign plan. it seems clear that he'll be doing laps: first, broadbent/boivin/team jack, next demonstrate support among electeds across the country, the higher profile the better, next, attempt to parlay that success into endorsements from labor and activist groups, finally and throughout, work on mps.

there's an implicit and probably winning strategy here on wooing the membership. first, he'll play the air game, to raise profile, raise funds, and position himself as a clear front-runner. the best way for topp to win is to be the non-mulcair, the party man to the politician, as it were.

next, but not long behind, he'll move to the ground game. topp's approach to memberships will almost certainly occur in three distinct ways: in recent leadership contest provinces like bc, sask and manitoba, he'll try to capitalize on links to former leadership camps, talking to their organizers and team members, getting their lists, trying to get endorsements, etc. here he has a commanding advantage over the other potential candidates. in provinces like ontario, alberta and the maritimes, he'll likely look to the unions as well as various ndp provincial elements and locals. topp is likely to be stronger with the older line types, and certainly he'll be the first to contact them. finally, in quebec, he'll do what he can to organize, likely out of ottawa and in conjunction with whatever caucus and q-section organizational support he can peel off mulcair (my guess: not much).

to these ends and with them in mind, his message is already clear: 1) on quebec, he says he's the architect and from the province; 2) on the backroom to frontroom, he's the architect of campaigns and governments; 3) on ndp values, he's old-line and jack's heir, but also savvy and pragmatic. these are appeals that ought to work well enough for him to capitalize well on his advantages.

onto the places where he could falter. basically, if adrian dix had run for ndp leader in 2010/2011 without ever having stood for election, there's no question he'd have fared poorly. topp is in the same position. topp's lack of fire, gravitas, charisma and parliamentary experience can't but be seen as strongly negative to most dippers, used to layton.

quebec remains a problem. on the one hand, the caucus is likely to come out strongly for mulcair, reshifting the narrative in a way that will affect the thinking of everyone from bc unionists to halifax enviros. it's very possible that a movement for mulcair develops out of itself, as it becomes clear that he's the best candidate to take the boots to harper and deliver a progressive government in ottawa. moreover, quebec membership numbers are so low, and support for a mulcair ndp so potentially high that with a powerful campaign, mulcair could potentially win the leadership by winning quebec and suffering close-ish losses in every other province.

a component that remains unclear at this point is the extent of mulcair's support outside of quebec. if mulcair could match topp outside of quebec, and blow him away inside of quebec, then topp will have to out-organize the quebecer in the field, potentially difficult if the media is going against him and he's forced to mount a campaign from the union left.

moreover, a core element of topp's strategy requires that he roll out the sort of campaign and support that make it clear that his is a team to join. however, precisely this element may well have the effect of chasing other candidates from the race, and catalyzing the leadership contest into a choice between mulcair and topp. and this is not necessarily to topp's advantage. the support that will go mulcair will likely go mulcair on the first ballot, and non-mulcair candidates' partisans' second ballot support will likely fall disproportionately to non-mulcair candidates. if topp pushes potential allies out of the race at the start, he cedes allies in membership sales that could lead to second ballot support.

so all told, we have a real front-runner in topp, a beatable front-runner, but one who a betting man would not be wise to bet against.

The shot heard around the hourly CBC news updates.

Instinctually, I feel that there won't be an election. But my instincts are terrible, and word has just come down that Jack Layton won't be supporting the budget.

What Now? Election time?

The Wager

12 months ago to the day I bet a lobbyist 20$ that Stephen Harper would have a Majority government by this new year's eve. It was a bad bet, I admit, One should never bet on the occurrence of one event leaving all other events to one's counterparty. I had been drinking. But a Bet's a Bet here at this low-rated Canadian politics blog.

Essentially what I had thought made sense at the time: Ignatieff had just faced a personal trough of popularity, Harper had a pile of money and could afford to fire little anti-cyclical attack ads at Team Iggy. Add to that the fact that there had been an election every two years since 2004: I thought we were due.

In any case I was wrong. Here we are in the waning days of 2010, no election in sight. The funny thing is how little has changed, when one thinks of the position of the polls then and now. Surprisingly little movement, despite all the crazy shit that has happened.

But at the same time the oppositions has been steadily worn down. Liberal fundraising is still low-ish, Conservative fundraising is still high-ish. Micheal is still hella-unpopular, Jack is dying, Gilles is old and has already, to my knowledge, told everyone he was going to step down in 2010. Everyone is tired except Harper. So it's coming, that election, everyone expects it in the spring.

But what of my 20$? It will go, like all good things, to the lobbyists. And they will use it to tip the coat check girl at Hy's Steakhouse. And she will give it to me, for undisclosed, unsavory reasons. The Life-cycle of Ottawa is complete.

a lonely raft adrift at sea.

it's charming how those in the legacy media most vigorously counseling canadians against the legitimacy, workability and propriety of an ndp/lpc coalition are doing so using direct-from-the-message-box cpc partisan language. truly charmed, i am. as we all know by now, it would be far, far too much to expect measured, relevant political analyses from our legacy media. and surely, deception, partisan subterfuge and a basic disrespect for canadians' intelligence has always figured large in the political punditry thrust upon us by the same. nonetheless, though deplorably consistent, what we're seeing here still irritates: harnessing the canwest legacy media monopolies for naked promotion of a pro-cpc take on the coalition isn't a new low, but it's still pretty low. the cpc in its current iteration will never achieve 50% of the vote, their shot at a majority depends very basically upon the smp system and the rewards accrued in a favorable distribution of support. similarly, the most powerful argument on the liberal side against joining a coalition is their belief that they may, themselves, one day again benefit from an smp bonus. these positions are both deeply cynical, and it ought to be the first thing a journalist with any respect for his profession would point out to a public that may still believe that these groups operate on principle. alas, in the roc, the moral contortionists instead concoct convoluted rear-garde arguments defending tory/future liberal power, or at the very least, the sick man status quo: because the system has always operated to narrow the parameters of power shift, it is radical and unseemly to suggest that it be otherwise. the thrust is so obvious that it's almost certain that canadians, long spoon-fed their pablum of simplistic causal lines and slogans, are sure never even to consider it.

really, and if there are those who still do not understand the quebec intellectual class' four square support of separatism, consider this a first lesson.

I

Douglas Bell has a short piece on the declining popularity (huh? what?) of Ignatieff titled "Ig descendant". Has anyone noticed that his name is getting steadily shorter? First it was the correct anglo 'Ignatieff', then detractors and wags used the more slavic 'Ignatiev'. Then we have the ubiquitous 'Iggy', used by both the lovers and haters alike. Then there was Igg used as a shorthand for a shorthand on this very blog.

Now Bell, pushing the boundaries of the Canadian Political Injoke, has taken it a step further. One wonders if the name will continue to shorten untill one day there is no name. Simply an empty space standing across from a confused PM, and in front of a Liberal Party drifting in the wind left by his passing.

The Return of Domestic Terrorism

This has made shockingly little impact on the people of Ottawa. Despite the fact that it happened in one of the most thoroughly walkable neighbourhoods. About five blocks from my apartment actually.

It's actually pretty surprising to see this happen, although when you think of the huge number of these soft targets available for anyone who wants to make a political statement, you could see how it could start happening a whole lot more. But why the Glebe? The RBC actually has a much more important branch in centretown. Probably has to do with the relative lack of security cameras in the Glebe. but all that is about to change.

How does this all this play out? Well, it's probably some 21 year old Emily Carr Institute student from a liberal-held riding in Vancouver who will be caught and tried under laws that were crafted to prosecute international terrorists who actually want to kill people and behead them on TV. All the same I think we can assume that they'll screw up the investigation so that his (or her!) four year trial will easily cover the period of incarceration that he will be sentenced to.

Should be interesting.

words that build and destroy.

rahim jaffer, long a side joke among those who follow politics closely (this is james moore five years early), is now a national joke. but whereas only a few days ago it seemed that his issues were to remain such, the worm has turned, ever so deliciously, in precisely the direction we had all hoped and suspected it might and must. yes, dear readers, full scale government corruption! savor this, knowing that the absurd prairie-dancing opposition can no more convert it to capital than our (yes, the phrase is deeply ironic) parliament's hapless speaker can abrogate the concentric swirl of power to the pmo.

The NCC has got to go.

I was going to write a sarcastic post, something along the lines of "oh yeah this would be a REAL great idea..." But I'm fairly sure that irony is easily misread by the people of Ottawa. I will therefore go on the record saying that Making a 20 metre tall statue of the stanley cup using public money and public space a stupid idea. There are no, I repeat, no redeeming qualities to this proposal.

There was no joy in mudville.

Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright;

The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,

And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;

But there is no joy in Mudville — mighty Casey has struck out.

Beautiful Day today in our nation's Capital. The sun is shining, the birds (actually!) are singing. The bureaucrats are making love. The waitresses are serving overpriced food and drink. The conservative minded people are developing bad policy ideas. You can still see the flags and assorted Senators shwag is the windows of people who forgot to get off the bandwagon last night. Throughout the city though, there is a palpable feeling not of loss but the sense of emptyness that comes from a long expected tragedy, like the family of a man who died after a long terminal illness.

Up Next: Montreal's defeat at the hands of Washington!

these canards (connards?).

it would be nice if this sort of mendacity weren't so common, but alas, it is. it really does bear repeating: 1) it would be disastrous if quebec left canada; 2) the government doesn't give quebec special treatment. the article that this guy should have written deploys that survey data in some outline of how the government might better inform canadians, that they would hold accurate views.